The original caption describing this chart states:
Annual incidence of gout was less than 0.1% for men with serum uric acid levels less than 416 μmol/L, 0.4% for men with levels of 416 to 475 μmol/L, 0.8% for men with levels of 476 to 534 μmol/L, 4.3% for men with levels of 535 to 594 μmol/L, and 7.0% for men with levels greater than 595 μmol/L, according to the Normative Aging Study (13). The solid line denotes these data points; the dotted line shows an exponential projection of the data points.
This chart emphasizes how the risk of gout rises with higher uric acid levels. The data comes from “Asymptomatic hyperuricemia. Risks and consequences in the Normative Aging Study.” report, from which, the abstract states:
To quantify the consequences of asymptomatic hyperuricemia, this study examined rates for a first episode of gouty arthritis based on 30,147 human-years of prospective observation. A cohort of 2,046 initially healthy men in the Normative Aging Study was followed for 14.9 years with serial examinations and measurement of urate levels. With prior serum urate levels of 9 mg/dl or more, the annual incidence rate of gouty arthritis was 4.9 percent, compared with 0.5 percent for urate levels of 7.0 to 8.9 mg/dl and 0.1 percent for urate levels below 7.0 mg/dl. With urate levels of 9 mg/dl or higher, cumulative incidence of gouty arthritis reached 22 percent after five years. Incidence rates were three times higher for hypertensive patients than for normotensive patients (p less than 0.01). The strongest predictors of gout in a proportional hazards model were age, body mass index, hypertension, and cholesterol level, and alcohol intake. When the serum urate level became a factor in the model, none of these variables retained independent predictive power. At the final examination, only 0.7 percent of participants had a serum creatinine level of 2.0 mg/dl or more, with no evidence of renal deterioration attributable to hyperuricemia. These data support conservative management of asymptomatic hyperuricemia.
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